Hezbollah and Lebanon: A Waning Influence in the Region

Middle East analyst Tzvi Yehezkeli provides an in-depth look at the implications of civilian evacuations from southern Lebanon amid Israel's current operation against Hezbollah. According to him, this evacuation is a clear victory image for Israel. "When we see the citizens of southern Lebanon leaving in droves, heading north and getting stuck in traffic, it's a powerful effect. It's an image that signifies Israel as the winning side," Yehezkeli stated during a i24 news broadcast. "The accompanying fear, the white flags waving—it all creates a very significant psychological impact on the arena."

According to Yehezkeli, Hezbollah and Nasrallah do not consider the civilian population and use them as human shields. "Nasrallah and Sinwar aren't interested in the citizens; they see them as tools of war. However, the major change in this operation is that Israel isn't falling into that trap. Evacuating the population from southern Lebanon prevents Hezbollah from using civilians as shields and strengthens Israel's position on the international stage," he explained.

Regarding the impact on Nasrallah himself, Yehezkeli expressed doubt about whether these images have a direct effect on him but emphasized their influence on Arab public opinion. "These images do not affect Nasrallah personally—he's bunkered down—but they impact the Lebanese public and the Arab world. Sunnis in the Arab world are beginning to call for Israel to continue the operation and eliminate Nasrallah. This is an effect Israel needs to exploit," he added.

In conclusion, he mentioned that Israel is now at a strategic turning point: "The big question is whether Israel will be able to create a new order in the north or if we'll eventually see a political agreement. If such an agreement comes about, it will be due to Nasrallah's capitulation, and Israel must capitalize on this momentum."