"Trump and Biden Both Face Major Challenges": Experts Analyze Dramatic Developments in American Politics

A few days ago, the Republican Party candidates gathered for a debate designed to present their positions to the American public. Journalist and foreign affairs commentator Oren Nahari shares an incident overshadowing the event: "It turns out the debate took place without former President Trump, who chose to grant an interview on Twitter with journalist Tucker Carlson at the same time. What is even more interesting is that while relatively few watched the intra-Republican debate, over 100 million people tuned in to Trump's broadcast!"

This event tells the story of the intra-party Republican primaries: a series of contenders aiming to run on behalf of the party for the U.S. presidency, while a different candidate, acting uniquely, holds a significant advantage in the polls and public interest. The leading candidate is, of course, former President Donald Trump.

"There is an important point that goes unnoticed in Israel," Nahari clarifies. "'Debate' in Hebrew is translated as 'confrontation,' but it isn't a confrontation; it's a discussion. However, gradually over the years, it has become confrontational, and nowadays, everyone focuses on attacking each other as much as possible. The roots of intra-party confrontations go back about 150 years, when candidates would meet and talk with each other, essentially debating for hours."

"But now," Nahari believes, "the Republican primary is not significant. Trump alone enjoys higher popularity ratings than all the candidates standing against him."

If he is so popular, why did Trump avoid the Republican debate?

"The reason given, which I consider cynical, is that Trump is already leading ahead of everyone, so why risk a debate? However, another, perhaps even more significant, reason keeps Trump out of the debate: the concern of his lawyers that he might say something that incriminates himself, given the four charges currently against him."

Trump's Legal Battle

Indeed, the American political battle unfolds alongside the legal battles waged by Trump, and alongside him, Hunter Biden, the current president's son.

"The former president faces no less than four indictments. This is a historical precedent unlike any other against any former U.S. president," Professor Eitan Gilboa, an American expert from Bar-Ilan University and senior researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, tells Hidabroot. "Trump is on trial for holding classified documents unlawfully, giving money against the American constitution, his possible responsibility for the Capitol riots in an attempt to overturn election results, and the attempt to overturn the state of Georgia's important election results."

Is it true, as Trump's people claim, that the charges against him are political?

"The large number of charges against Trump aligns more with the fact that there has never been a president like him in the U.S.," Gilboa believes. "You need to understand how it works in the U.S.: A prosecutor cannot prosecute anyone on their own but must do so through a grand jury. These jurors are gathered from the public, the prosecutor presents the legal information to them, and only then do they decide whether indictments can be filed. In Trump's cases, this was indeed the decision of those grand juries."

"If we take Georgia as an example, what happened there is quite clear: Trump asked the Secretary of State of Georgia to find him an additional 12,000 votes, and now he participates in the indictment against Trump. That Secretary of State is a Republican, so there is no connection to political affiliation, whether Democratic or Republican. Moreover, all those managing this event is a special prosecutor named Jack Smith, who is a straightforward person, so I do not find any truth in Trump's claims."

(Photo: shutterstock)

About another claim by the former president, that there was a deliberate delay in bringing charges against him to harm his presidential race, Gilboa does not believe there is any truth to it: "You have to understand that such a thing takes time. There are several authorities involved, and not everything can progress simultaneously."

However, Gilboa believes that some of the charges against Trump are not significant, if at all: "One of them is the lawsuit regarding the unlawful possession of classified documents. This is not a significant lawsuit. Trump claims he was entitled to hold these documents according to certain procedural steps he admittedly did not follow, yet it still isn't serious. Furthermore, similar documents were found with the current president, Joe Biden."

Which of the charges is particularly problematic for the former president?

"The story of the election interference, which includes the event in Georgia, and alongside it, the charge that attributes him to the 'Capitol events.' During these events, a furious crowd stormed the Capitol on the day of the electoral vote for Biden after Trump questioned the election results. These are particularly significant events, especially the story of the Georgia elections."

Do you think these charges might lead Trump to jail?

"It might definitely end up in the Supreme Court, like the story of the attack on Congress. There, Trump might be acquitted because it's important to note that out of nine judges, six are conservative, and three of them are Trump's appointees."

But in the meantime, Trump is politically profiting from the legal saga.

"That's correct. His claims around the trial are very effective with his supporters. Many in his party accept his claims, and with each indictment, his support increases. Although he doesn't inform his supporters that one can run for election even from prison, contrary to his assertion of a personal battle against him, these charges don't pose a real threat to American democracy."

Does any candidate in the Republican primaries stand a chance of defeating Trump?

"It's difficult to see a scenario where another candidate beats Trump. The former president is the leading candidate by a significant margin. Even concerning the charges against him, only one or two candidates challenge him, claiming he won't be able to win the elections due to the legal issues he faces. But Trump leads over them and is expected to win.

"However, Trump has funding issues because he took money from donors and transferred it to his legal battles. Not all donors liked this, and thus he now faces cash flow problems. In contrast, his main rival within the Republican Party, Ron DeSantis, enjoys a healthy cash flow, but his campaign has completely failed, and he does not receive significant support–despite early beliefs that he could beat Trump."

Republicans Believe in Trump's Innocence

Marc Zell, chairman of the Republican Party in Israel and a lawyer by training, believes the charges against the former president are not serious at all: "Anyone knowledgeable about U.S. law understands that these are charges that lack any factual or legal basis. This is purely a political event led by the Democratic Party."

What, in your opinion, is the Democrats' goal in the trial against Trump?

"They want to make it difficult for Trump to campaign and fail to prepare for election day. He is forced to contend with four trials currently taking place in four different courts: in Washington, New York, Florida, and now Georgia. They think this will cause him to lose, initially in the primaries, and if not, prevent him from eventually being elected president.

"It's very clear," Zell believes, "the prosecutors leading the cases against Trump are Democrats, from Democratic states, so there is no doubt a political reason drives them to advance these moves. All this leads to the conclusion that when these events reach a jury (citizens selected to manage the U.S. legal process), Trump won't stand a chance, as those selected will be Democrats from states which are described as Democratic, ensuring his conviction.

"Ultimately, it will end up in the Supreme Court, but this will happen only after the presidential elections."

Zell has an interesting proof that the charges against Trump are not significant: "You can see it in the political implications the trials have on the public. It turns out that the situation, at this point, only leads to an increase in Trump's power, because these charges are precedents that have never occurred in American history. Just because of this, Trump's situation is improving, as the public understands the deception."

Is this what leads to Trump's success?

"In my opinion, yes. He has no competitors right now, and he leads by 50 and 50 percent according to the polls. This happens due to his own popularity and the legal proceedings against him. Personally, I might have supported someone else, but after all the distortions the legal system manages against him, I decided to support the former president."

What about his policy compared to Biden's policy?

"Here too, Trump led a far better policy than Biden. When Trump was president, he succeeded tremendously, and now there is a situation where the U.S. is at an almost unprecedented low. This happens in almost every field: whether the millions reporting in surveys they cannot make ends meet due to their problematic financial situation or the masses of immigrants infiltrating the U.S. – seven million since Biden entered the White House. Alongside this, there is a massive surge in crime. Additionally, Trump greatly improved the U.S.'s energy capabilities, made the U.S. energy-independent, and was on the brink of becoming one of the world's leading energy exporters, but during Biden's period, everything stopped and regressed, so now a gallon of gas costs 4 dollars. In the U.S., that's a huge price increase."

"Americans Are Mainly Interested in the Economy"

Regarding the candidates' chances, Nahari notes that "The central issue in U.S. elections is the economy, but alongside it, there are also issues like crime, personal security, illegal immigration, and also abortion. Diving into the data, Biden is perceived as especially problematic in economic issues because there is certain inflation, and the average American feels it in their pocket; their wage is stagnant while prices rise.

"But it's important to understand that the situation in the U.S. is relatively good compared to the world. And yet this is unlikely to help Biden in the practical test, as one can try to convince the American citizen that there is an economic crisis worldwide due to COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine. After all, unemployment in the U.S. is relatively low compared to the world, but they see the conditions on the ground, and that's enough for them not to elect the incumbent president seen as responsible for this situation.

"And above all," Nahari adds, "Biden faces more significant problems, and those are the cognitive issues. On election day, Biden will be over eighty, and Trump, by the way, is not far behind him but looks younger. Biden has different encounters that raise a big question mark over his ability to function, and these might ultimately harm him.

(Photo: shutterstock)

"Additionally, Biden's son, Hunter, is also involved in legal matters. He allegedly engaged in rather problematic businesses and used his father's name to promote them. The question now is whether Biden knew about his son's shady businesses; if so, when did he know, and worse – did he accept bribes because of them? If it turns out he knew about it in real-time and gave it quiet approval – the elections are decided in favor of the Republicans," Nahari believes.

Given Biden's low standing, what are the chances he will be replaced by another Democratic candidate to run for the presidency?

"Currently, it seems unlikely that Democrats will overthrow him, as there's a tradition not to run against a sitting leader. Incidentally, not even the vice president, who is also quite a disappointment, will be replaced. Democrats hoped she would be more effective, especially regarding her policy towards the southern border and preventing illegal immigration from there – a task she was given."

In your opinion, how will these elections end?

"We are over a year away from the elections, and so many things can happen until then, including diplomatic developments, like what relates to the war in Ukraine, various economic crises, and more. Just this week, a new COVID-19 variant was reported, so I think the health issue might play a critical role in the elections. Additionally, there's the issue of presidential debates between the two candidates. It's enough for Trump to challenge Biden, and the incumbent president freezes, stutters, or gets confused – and a million Americans, or even fewer, decide they switch their support to Trump, and thereby the elections end in favor of the Republican leader.

"The situation is further complicated by the American electoral system, which grants about 30,000 people in certain important states the ability to determine the election results. In the previous elections, Trump needed only about 30,000 more votes to switch sides to win, despite the massive gap in favor of Biden in terms of the number of voters. So predicting the outcomes a year in advance is challenging, if not impossible."