Alarming Data: "10 Million Eligible Under the Law of Return Are Not Jews"

Could Israel lose its Jewish majority in a few years? This bleak scenario might not be far off. "If in the early 80s, 85% of Israel's citizens were Jewish, today we are only 73.6% of the state's citizens," explains Dr. Yona Sherki, director of the Israeli Immigration Policy Center. "In the past three and a half decades, the Jewish majority in Israel has lost 10%, and each year, on average, it loses an additional 0.3% of its size. All of this is due to the current Law of Return, which allows millions who are not Jewish to immigrate here."

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The Israeli Immigration Policy Center, now led by Sherki, started due to another pressing issue - the infiltration from Africa to Israel. "There were many failures in the field, and no one addressed the issue in the public arena," he says. "In this vacuum, we began operating, researching relevant topics, promoting legislation, highlighting the data in various media channels, and filing petitions in court. Over time, the center's activities expanded to encompass all immigration issues in Israel."

The Law of Return defines immigration policy to Israel. "The essential clause in this law states that every Jew has the right to immigrate to Israel. In 1970, following a petition to the Supreme Court, this right was extended to the family members of the immigrant, to prevent separation between them. It was then defined by law that a Jew is someone born to a Jewish mother or converted, and that there is also a right to immigrate to Israel for their children, grandchildren, and spouses, even though they themselves are not Jewish. Later, in the early 2000s, another petition to the Supreme Court resulted in determining that those who converted in Reform or Conservative conversions are also considered Jewish for this definition. Thus, the door was opened for millions of people who are not Jewish according to Halacha to obtain Israeli citizenship."

The severe consequences of the expansion of the Law of Return are now acutely felt. "The demographic drop from 85% to 73.6% Jews in the country is not only due to Arab demographic growth but primarily due to the increase in the number of other groups - the non-religious and Christians, as census data shows," says Sherki. "This group has recently risen from 0% to 5% of the total Israeli population, and 99.8% of their growth results from immigration to Israel. In comparison, by the way, immigration only contributes 20% to the growth of the Jewish population and hardly affects the Arab population."

A brief look at the data for 2022 confirms these figures. "Last year, 77,000 people arrived in Israel. 6,000 of them received Israeli citizenship status under the Entry into Israel Law, which allows granting citizenship to non-Jews for various reasons, like soccer players or Olympic contestants. When dissecting the additional 71,000 immigrants, you see that only 32,000 of them are Jewish. A quick calculation reveals that 40% of those entering the country in the last year are not Jewish, and unfortunately, both birth rates and Jewish immigration rates fail to catch up with this number."

How can this data be explained, considering the high birth rate in the country?

"True, but by subtracting the number of deaths from the number of births in a year, one understands that the natural demographic growth of the Jewish population cannot keep up with the natural growth of the other parts of the population. All this is evident in the demographic statistics - last year we lost 0.3% of our population in the country. Another harsh fact is that within the Jewish majority, those who converted in Reform or Conservative conversions are included, constituting 5% of the immigrants from Western countries. This data's meaning is that the statistical situation is even more catastrophic."

What awaits us next?

"Currently, there are almost 18 million eligible under the Law of Return worldwide, of which only about 8 million are Jews. This means that 54% of those eligible for the Law of Return worldwide are not Jews according to the law. When examining global assimilation rates, they are 60% and above in most diasporas, and for every assimilated Jew, additional non-Jewish eligible under the Law of Return are born. So unless the Law of Return is amended, assimilation will only exacerbate the crisis over time."

But even so, most of those eligible under the Law of Return who are not Jews do not intend to immigrate to Israel?

"Data segmentation shows that this figure depends on the countries of origin. Examining the top 10 countries with the most new immigrants, Russia is first, followed by Ukraine, then France, the USA, and Belarus. Immigration from Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus is very broad. From Russia, for example, 18% of those eligible under the Law of Return have already immigrated. In contrast, immigration from France and the USA ranges from -0.002% to 4% of all eligible under the Law of Return. Another significant figure is the percentage of Jewish immigrants from each country. Only 28% of immigrants from Russia in the last two years are Jewish. This compares with immigrants from France and the USA, about 95% of whom are Jewish. These data show that from countries where the quality of life is equal to or better than Israel, immigration is minimal and mostly Jewish, motivated by ideology. Conversely, in countries where the quality of life is lower than in Israel, people move primarily to improve their living standards and economic situations, leading to more immigrants from these countries, but few of them are Jews."

Is there anyone leading this trend of non-Jewish immigration to Israel? 

"Several key groups are responsible for this. Some bring non-Jews to Israel illegally - like human rights organizations assisting infiltrators and foreign workers whose visas have expired. Alongside them, there are advocates for non-Jewish immigration to Israel with different claims, such as those seeking to open the gates for Ukrainian refugees fleeing the war, or those promoting non-Jewish immigration from Ethiopia under the guise of family reunification. Other organizations operate legally and serve as the state's executive force. For instance, the Jewish Agency also encourages immigration among those who are undoubtedly not Jews, as its goal is to bring people to Israel as long as they meet the Law of Return's criteria. The agency doesn't concern itself with who is a Jew according to Halacha but operates according to the state's decisions."

The Battle for the State

The question of Israel's demographic future is another arena facing Judaism. "In the territorial arena, we fight for the land, in the religious arena, the struggle is for the state's Jewish character, and in the social arena, we also fight over demography. Already there is 5% assimilation within Israel, resulting from the growth of the non-Jewish population, which forms fertile ground for mixed marriages between Jews and non-Jews."

This situation could affect Israel's status as a Jewish and democratic state. "In a democratic state, the majority determines the identity of the country. Once there is no Jewish majority here, there won't be legitimacy to demand a Jewish state. The general trend is already heading in this direction, and unless we stop it, the results could be disastrous."

During the recent coalition agreements, coalition parties committed to amending the Law of Return. "Worldwide, immigration legislation grants the right to unite and live as a family," explains Sherki. "All of this regarding the legal immigrant's spouse and their minor children. We haven't seen in any country the provision of eligibility for a grown-up son or grandson, and certainly not for their spouses. Regarding legislation - from receiving benefits to legal responsibility - an adult over 18 stands on their own and is not included under their parents' responsibility. Therefore, there is no reason to keep the grandchild clause in the Law of Return. Amending the law would significantly reduce the number of non-Jewish individuals eligible under the Law of Return and could reduce non-Jewish immigration to Israel by 85%. This amendment would represent another milestone on the road to preserving Israel as a Jewish and democratic state."

Rabbi Zamir Cohen deeply appeals: "We must amend the Law of Return":