Divine Providence and the Fate of Nations: How Morality Shapes a Country’s Success

Eli asks: "Hello. Is there a connection between a nation’s success and its level of righteousness? On one hand, medicine and technology increase people’s life expectancy, and natural disasters or diseases can’t really be predicted. So how and when can we see divine providence guiding a nation according to its actions?"

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Hello Eli, and thank you for your profound question.

Divine providence does not mean that God acts outside the laws of nature. Long life and good quality of life depend on natural causes that God created, just as the Torah is the “manufacturer’s manual” that teaches us the spiritual and physical laws governing reality. Providence operates within nature, not apart from it.

When God wills that a certain nation should prosper medically or technologically, He arranges that discoveries and innovations appear there. When a society becomes corrupt, it naturally suffers from poverty, disease, and instability — but these outcomes are not random; they are the divine system at work through the laws of nature.

The Seven Noahide Laws and National Morality

According to the Torah, the general wellbeing of nations depends on their observance of the Seven Noahide Laws, which are the basic moral commandments that govern relationships between human beings.

For example:

• The United States led the world in abolishing slavery and promoting human rights, and has since enjoyed great prosperity and global influence.

• Japan, once a militaristic and oppressive regime, adopted principles of human dignity after World War II, and rose to become a world leader in technology and economy.

In contrast, nations steeped in idolatry and cruelty — where people abuse one another under primitive customs, continue to suffer from poverty and disease. In parts of Africa, for example, people with albinism are still brutally murdered for witchcraft, and in India the ancient “Sati” custom once demanded that widows be burned alive on their husbands’ funeral pyres. Such societies often neglect their poor, widows, and orphans, and accordingly, we find that their lands are plagued by hardship.

God arranges circumstances so that nations that uphold human dignity and compassion enjoy progress, while those that oppress and harm others remain trapped in suffering.

Lessons from History

Divine providence can also be seen clearly in the rise and fall of empires:

• Nazi Germany began as a thriving nation — the center of science, philosophy, and culture. Yet when it embraced evil and mass murder, rejecting moral law, it collapsed utterly. Despite its power, discipline, and technological advancement, it was destroyed in just a few years.

• The Soviet Union overthrew the czars to build a communist empire promising equality, but its regime was founded on oppression, atheism, and bloodshed. It became a superpower — but after decades of tyranny and moral decay, it too fell apart, consumed by poverty and internal collapse.

In both cases, their downfall defied natural expectations. Both violated the moral foundation between man and fellow man. History repeatedly shows a pattern, that the moral standing of a nation determines its stability and prosperity.

Providence in Nature and Catastrophe

While natural disasters seem unpredictable, even here, the Torah and Jewish thought teach that divine justice operates within nature. Most major natural catastrophes occur along the “Ring of Fire”, a belt of frequent earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis. It may be that certain regions are chosen as instruments of divine judgment for moral corruption common among them.

Maimonides (the Rambam) explains divine providence during natural disasters in two ways:

1. Even when a natural catastrophe occurs, God protects those who are not meant to perish. As he writes (Guide for the Perplexed, III:17): “If a ship sinks with its passengers, or a roof collapses upon those beneath it, these events may appear accidental — but the presence of certain individuals there is not by chance. It is according to divine judgment, by the will of God, whose wisdom we cannot fathom.”

2. On a collective level, God’s judgment applies to nations according to their moral balance: “A person whose sins outweigh his merits dies immediately in his wickedness… Likewise, a nation whose sins outweigh its merits is destroyed… and the same applies to the entire world.” (Mishneh Torah, Laws of Repentance 3:1–3)

Thus, when societies become morally corrupt, their downfall — whether through war, famine, or disaster, follows naturally from divine law embedded in creation.

The Unique Providence Over Israel

The most extraordinary example of providence is seen in the Jewish people. For over 3,300 years, Israel has survived against every law of history, while mighty empires that sought its destruction have vanished.

God promised that Israel would remain eternal: “Yet even then, when they are in the land of their enemies, I will not reject them or destroy them utterly, for I am the Lord their God.” (Vayikra 26:44)

Throughout history, every empire that oppressed Israel — Egyptian, Babylonian, Greek, Roman, Christian, Nazi, or Arab — eventually fell, while Israel endures.

This ongoing miracle proves that the fate of Israel is not governed by natural law but by divine supervision. When the Jewish people fulfill their spiritual mission as a “kingdom of priests and a holy nation” (Shemot 19:6), they bring blessing to the world — “a light to the nations” (Yeshayahu 49:6). When they neglect that mission, suffering and persecution follow, reminding them of their higher purpose.

The Direction of History

History is not random, but it follows a divine plan. According to the prophets, the world is moving toward a climactic period known as the War of Gog and Magog, which will precede the arrival of the Mashiach and the final redemption.

All of history, including the rise and fall of nations, the moral tests of humanity, and the preservation of Israel, reveals one truth: Divine providence guides the world with perfect justice and purpose, visible to anyone who truly observes.