The Timeless Debate: Predicting the Messiah's Arrival

In the Talmud, Tractate Sanhedrin, Rabbi Shmuel bar Nachmani said, "Perish the spirits of those who calculate the end times." In other words, those who try to predict when our righteous Messiah will come—may their spirits perish.

Why Predicting the End is Harmful

The reason it's forbidden to predict the end times is that when someone claims to have calculated the time (based on hints in the Book of Daniel), it discourages the masses who think the Messiah won't arrive for many years.

History has shown how this can harm a community. Over three centuries ago, the false messiah Shabtai Zvi appeared, performing wonders, and many believed he was the Messiah of Israel. The people, convinced their redeemer had come, intensified their repentance and good deeds, fasting to atone for sins before what they thought were the imminent days of reward, when Hashem would reward the righteous and punish the wicked. This zeal was shattered when Shabtai Zvi's fraud was exposed; under pressure from the authorities, he converted to Islam, breaking the hearts of those who saw their redeemer as a false savior.

Following this, especially in Ashkenaz, upheaval and heresy disrupted communities, as followers of Shabtai Zvi continued his path. Eminent figures were mistakenly suspected of affiliation with his cult, leading to public disgrace. This diminished Torah respect, paving the way for the Haskalah, the Jewish Enlightenment, with its heretical ideas, affecting many. These incidents illustrate the severe consequences of messianic predictions and the dangers they entail.

The Malbim's Calculations

The revered Malbim calculated the end times in his writings. When questioned about Rabbi Shmuel bar Nachmani's words, he explained that such calculations were only prohibited when the end was far off, as in the times of the sages, which could lead to despair because of the lengthy wait. But now, since we are close to the Messiah's coming, such calculations are permitted. Our late Rabbi brought this opinion forward in his sermons.

Nevertheless, approach these matters with wisdom; do not announce new revelations every day about the Messiah's closeness. This causes the public to lose faith, which is a significant loss. But we should ardently await redemption soon, our actions playing a crucial role. If many repent—be they those who never observed mitzvot or those considered religious—redemption will hasten. It also depends on our sorrow for the Temple's destruction and our spiritual and physical exile, as darkness covers the earth in our times. Fewer Torah scholars, fewer legal decisors exist, and we must increase our cries to the Almighty for swift redemption, in kindness and mercy, soon in our days, Amen.

The Messiah at the Western Wall

About eighteen years ago, our late Rabbi recounted in two places seeing the Messiah son of David in a dream at the Western Wall. He asked the Messiah, "When will the honor come to redeem Israel?" The Messiah replied, "Blessed be Hashem, there are many *ba'alei teshuvah*, and if more people return to repentance, soon I will be able to come and redeem Israel."

Therefore, we must influence others to fully return in repentance to Hashem, whether they increase or decrease their efforts, as long as they direct their hearts to their Father in Heaven.