What Deters Offenders More: Severe Punishment or Certainty of Punishment?

Many governments are working on reform plans to help reduce prison populations. The reason is simple: Not only is prison not an ideal environment for rehabilitation, but inmates also represent a heavy burden on taxpayers. The problem? Everyone wants to save money, but no one wants to find out that the cost-cutting leads to a crime wave, angering law-abiding citizens.

A recent experiment in Washington State reveals that it is indeed possible to reduce penal costs without compromising deterrence. Traditionally, state judges imposed sentences ranging from 30 to 120 days for parole violators caught breaking agreed-upon conditions, such as drug use. This policy had two major drawbacks: it was expensive, and it lacked consistency. When prisons were full, judges often released offenders without punishment. When prisons had space, offenders could face 90 or 120 days even for minor infractions.

To address the problem, Washington State decided to try a new strategy. All offenders violating their parole conditions would receive a maximum of three days in jail, but the punishment would be enforced statewide and immediately. Judges would no longer have discretion, and prison capacity would not be a factor. "Our program was based on a theory of criminal behavior developed as far back as the 18th century," explained officials in Washington. "It was argued even then that people are more deterred by the certainty of receiving punishment than by the severity of the punishment they might receive if caught."

The results were astounding. In the 12 months the program was in operation, 9,000 parole violators were apprehended and promptly sent to short jail terms. The new policy—immediate and certain punishment, though relatively mild—led to an 84% drop in repeat offenses, allowing cost savings to be allocated toward rehabilitation programs needed by the offenders. The old philosophy proves true, it seems: Want to deter someone? The key is not the threat of a terrifying punishment. The key is consistent punishment that cannot be evaded.